Sunday, February 22, 2009

Looking for the Incredible Hulk

  • As the meltdown continues - the S&P is now down 170 straight points (18%) and has been down 6 of the last 7 weeks, I am getting more and more invested for a counter trend rally (this week?). A hint of a potential rally appeared Friday as many stocks underneath the surface performed well despite another -100 day for the Dow. That being said...it is important to have stops in place just in case. There is a significant rally ahead...when and from where is the hard part.
  • The reason I am accumulating on the way down is because I sense the Incredible Hulk may show up and things get so green, so fast there will be no way to get in without prices having already moved so much.
  • I bought some April calls on the S&P 500 on Friday.
  • The parade of bearish guests on CNBC is simply amazing to me. I know this is a scary time, I feel it too, but can every bear be so right for so long without being tested at some point?
  • It is very weird seeing the majority not being able to imagine things will get better ever again. I am not being a Pollyanna, I see the negativity...and the reasons for it that is causing the incredible media coverage all over, I read it all day every day just like you do. I just wonder if the worst case scenario that is now so widely discussed is the most likely outcome of if prices at least reflect much of the reality already?